Get ready to be blown away: Chase Burns, the Cincinnati Reds' rising star, is projected to be one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball. But here's where it gets controversial—while the Reds' rotation is undeniably their strongest asset, it's Burns, not the returning All-Stars, who's tipped to lead the pack in run prevention. Let's dive into why this might just be the most exciting development for Reds fans.
The Reds' pitching staff has been on fire, literally topping MLB with the best ERA+ in 2025. This metric, which adjusts ERA for ballpark factors, shows they were the most effective at preventing runs last season. With many of these pitchers returning, expectations are sky-high. Yet, it's Burns who stands out in the latest projections, particularly from the oddly named but highly regarded OOPSY system. OOPSY predicts Burns will lead the Reds with a stellar 3.07 ERA, narrowly edging out Hunter Greene's 3.13. And this is the part most people miss—despite Greene's higher projected innings (183.0 vs. Burns' 130.0), it's Burns who's making waves in the ERA department.
Other projection systems, like Steamer and The BAT, also favor Burns, though not as dramatically. Steamer places him at a 3.74 ERA, while The BAT predicts 3.88. Greene remains valuable due to his durability, but Burns is the one turning heads. OOPSY ranks Burns 5th in ERA among all pitchers projected for 100.0+ innings, trailing only Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet, and the legendary Shohei Ohtani. Greene isn't far behind, at 8th, making the Reds' duo a force to be reckoned with.
Here’s the bold part: While OOPSY is bullish on Burns, other systems are more conservative, ranking him 31st (Steamer) or 32nd (The BAT) in ERA. So, is OOPSY onto something others are missing, or is it overestimating Burns' potential? This disparity invites debate—is Burns truly on the cusp of greatness, or are we getting ahead of ourselves?
Burns' journey hasn't been without bumps. Drafted 2nd overall in 2024 from Vanderbilt, he debuted in late June 2025 and had a rocky start, including a disastrous outing against Boston where he allowed five runs in just 0.1 innings. However, he rebounded impressively, posting a 3.32 ERA over his next 38.0 innings. His rookie season ended with a 4.57 ERA, but his 35.6% strikeout rate hinted at untapped potential.
Heading into spring training, Burns isn't guaranteed a rotation spot. He'll likely compete with 2023 first-round pick Rhett Lowder, who missed 2025 due to injuries but shone in 2024 with a 1.17 ERA in six starts. Meanwhile, established names like Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, and Nick Lodolo seem locked in, barring injuries. Prospects like Chase Petty, Julian Aguiar, and Brandon Williamson face long odds but will get their chance in Goodyear.
The big question remains: Can Burns live up to the hype? If OOPSY's projections are accurate, he could be a game-changer. But even if he falls short, his potential is undeniable. What do you think? Is Burns the real deal, or is the excitement premature? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments!
